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Archive for December 11th, 2007

Biased Democrats Fooled By Their Own Polling

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Democrats are crowing gleefully about the latest New York Times poll that shows Republicans are out of touch with their constituents and Democrats are united in their presidential choices.

Three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Republican voters across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about whom to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate, the poll found. And in a sign of the fluidity of the race, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who barely registered in early polls several months ago, is now locked in a tight contest nationally with Rudolph W. Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

By contrast, Democrats are happier with their field and more settled in their decisions. For all the problems Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be having holding off her rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, she remains strong nationally, the poll found. Even after what her aides acknowledge have been two of the roughest months of her candidacy, she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards.

I don ‘t believe this for one minute.

  1. It’s the New York Slimes
  2. Polling techniques are theories are frequently wrong in the past.

    In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, overall results based on such samples will differ by no more than three percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all American adults. For smaller subgroups, the margin of sampling error is larger. For example, it is plus or minus five percentage points for self-described Democratic primary voters and six points for self-described Republican primary voters. Shifts in results between polls over time also have a larger sampling error.

    In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Variation in the wording and order of questions, for example, may lead to somewhat different results.

  3. Michael R. Kagay is a Democratic hack. He’s been saying the “Republican’s Image Eroding Fast “since the late 1990’s.

    Michael R. Kagay of Princeton, N.J., assisted The Times in its polling analysis. Complete questions and results are available at nytimes.com/polls.

    IMPEACHMENT: THE POLL; Republicans’ Image Eroding Fast, Poll Shows

    By RICHARD W. STEVENSON WITH MICHAEL R. KAGAY – December 19, 1998

    New York Times/CBS News poll finds Republican Party’s standing with public has dropped significantly, matching lowest rating in past 14 years, as House moves toward impeachment of Pres Clinton; finds only 40 percent of Americans hold favorable view of party, while six out of 10 Americans say Republicans in Congress are out of touch with public’s wishes on impeachment; finds impeachment is opposed by 62 percent of Americans from every region, age group and income group–with exception of those w…

  4. It’s the New York Slimes, people.

Written by smalltalkwitht

December 11, 2007 at 8:59 am